Tropical Storm Francine is already strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Francine has begun to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a hurricane expected to hit Louisiana and parts of the western Gulf Coast by midweek.
The storm was churning in the record-warm western Gulf of Mexico after forming a few hundred miles from the Mexico-Texas border late Monday morning. Its winds increased to 50 to 60 mph Monday afternoon – just shy of hurricane-force winds of 14 mph.
Flooding rain, high winds and dangerous storm surges are expected along the western Gulf Coast this week as Francine continues to strengthen, prompting tropical storm and hurricane watches to be issued for the region.
Francine’s formation follows an unusually calm period in the Atlantic, with no named storms since Ernesto in mid-August during some of the busiest weeks of the hurricane season.
Although the storm is zeroing in on a possible landfall in Louisiana, it’s still too early to tell exactly where it might pass and how strong it will be at that point. Storms can strengthen quickly over very warm water – a sign of the planet warming from fossil fuel pollution – which essentially serves as jet fuel for tropical storms. It may even be stronger than the current forecast.
Louisiana officials are already bracing for the impact. Some parishes, including St. Mary’s and Terrebonne, began closing flood gates and distributing sandbags on Monday. Terrebonne Parish also declared a state of emergency, according to a news release.
Francine could become a hurricane a few hundred miles east of the Texas coast by Tuesday night and is expected to strengthen by Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm-force winds could reach far northeastern Mexico and far south Texas by Tuesday. Earlier, storm surge and rough surf could cause minor coastal flooding along the Mexican coastline early this week.
The worst of the storm’s rain and wind is expected to begin Wednesday morning, but fears of storm surge for the U.S. will increase as the system strengthens and approaches landfall.
A storm surge watch was issued Monday for coastal areas of East Texas through Louisiana and Mississippi. Parts of the central Louisiana coast could experience the worst of the storm, with water levels possibly reaching 10 feet above normal, especially before landfall.
Heavy rain will also be a serious threat, especially in coastal areas of northwest Mexico on Monday. Heavy rain from the system could also begin in South Texas on Monday before reaching much of the western Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
Tropical rains from the system will bring 4 to 8 inches of rain this week from far northeast Mexico to the Texas coast and parts of southern Louisiana. Totals could approach a foot for areas stranded by persistent rain. Another 2 to 4 inches is expected across the region.
Texas will get most of the heavy rain early this week, but some very stormy conditions could hold off for Louisiana by Tuesday night.
According to the NHC, tropical rains could pose a “substantial” risk of flooding.
Much of Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi have a 3 out of 4 chance of flash flooding Wednesday, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
The Gulf system is not the only area of tropical weather that can cause tropical depression.
According to the NHC, two other areas of the open Atlantic have a medium chance of development over the next seven days. Either potential tropical system is still days away from developing, so it’s too early to speculate where they might end up.
- Tropical Storm Francine Strengthening: Tropical Storm Francine is getting stronger in the Gulf of Mexico, with winds now between 50-60 mph.
- Hurricane Watch: Francine could become a hurricane by Tuesday night and may hit Louisiana and the western Gulf Coast by midweek.
- Severe Weather Expected: Prepare for flooding, high winds, and storm surges. A storm surge watch is in place from East Texas to Louisiana and Mississippi.
- Preparation Measures: Louisiana is already taking steps to prepare, including closing flood gates and distributing sandbags. Terrebonne Parish has declared a state of emergency.
- Heavy Rainfall: Expect heavy rain with up to 4-8 inches in some areas, and possibly up to a foot in places with persistent rainfall.
- Flooding Concerns: Flash flooding is a significant risk, especially in Louisiana and southern Mississippi, with a high chance of flooding on Wednesday.
- Other Tropical Systems: The NHC is also watching two other potential tropical systems in the Atlantic, but it’s too soon to know their impact.
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