According to the latest FBI data, violent crime in the U.S. dropped 3 percent last year.
The much-anticipated report released on Monday showed a decline in several serious crimes, including rape, robbery and aggravated assault.
Research shows that many voters believe violent crime has increased, making the topic one of the top issues in the November election.
What does the new FBI data show?
Violent crime – as recorded by the FBI – includes murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault reported to and recorded by police forces.
Its latest report shows an estimated 3 percent drop in violent crime between 2022 and 2023.
Homicides and non-negligent homicides fell by 12 percent, the largest decline in 20 years.
The report also shows:
- Rape 9%
- Robbery 0.3%
- Aggravated assault 3%
In 2023, the FBI recorded a rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 people, down from a 2022 rate of 377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 people.
Reported violent crime has decreased year over year since 2020.
But while violent crime is down, some non-violent crimes are on the rise. In 2023, motor vehicle thefts will increase by 13%.
Submitting data to the FBI is voluntary, and some police forces have not done so in recent years.
In 2021, the participation rate was about two-thirds because many agencies, including New York and Los Angeles, did not submit data to the FBI new system.
Donald Trump regularly criticizes the FBI’s statistics, and his website says it “misses about a third of the nation’s law enforcement agencies — including Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland.” , and from many violent cities like New Orleans”.
But participation has steadily improved, with more than 85 percent of agencies submitting data to the FBI’s data collection system in 2023.
Every city agency covering a population of 1 million residents or more contributed a full 12 months of data in 2023, the FBI says.
Smaller agencies typically don’t collect data, says Professor Daniel Flannery, an expert in violence prevention research.
“Many of them don’t have their own data people. They say suburban and rural communities don’t submit data because they lack resources.
What Other Measures Are Used to Track Violent Crime?
Another way to track violent crime in the United States is the National Crime Victimization Survey, which includes crimes that are not reported to the police.
The survey, published by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is based on a nationwide survey of nearly 240,000 people.
This includes violent crimes not reported to the police – less than half (45%) of the violent crimes counted in the latest survey were reported to the police in 2023.
Violent crime, as recorded in the survey, includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. It does not count murder.
Trump has said that violent crime nationwide has increased by 40 percent since 2020.
These figures are correct as per the latest crime statistics.
They show that between 2020 and 2023, the rate of violent crime per 1,000 population has increased that much.
However, Trump is making comparisons with a year when violent crime — as measured by the survey — was significantly lower.
“Choosing a year during Covid that might represent the lowest crime rate then cherry-picks two points in time compared to a more ‘return to normal year’,” says Professor Flannery. A comparison with the pre-Covid year may be more appropriate.
“While the rate in 2023 was higher than in 2020 and 2021, it was not different from the figures five years earlier, in 2019,” the survey said.
What Do Long-Term Crime Trends Indicate?
Both major sources of data show that violent crime has declined over the past three decades.
According to a Pew Research Center analysis, FBI data shows that between 1993 and 2022, violent crime rates fell 49 percent, with robbery rates (down 74 percent) and homicides (down 34 percent). ) has been greatly reduced.
Similarly, the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ survey of victims has dropped 71 percent over the same period.
Of the decline in violent crime, Professor Flannery says this is “in part because we’re getting better at understanding what drives violent crime, which tends to be very high in a community.” Fewer people reoffend. It’s also about targeted policing strategies and interventions.”
Mark Levine, chief policy counsel for the Council on Criminal Justice, says other factors can contribute to lowering crime rates.
“We don’t know all the reasons for the fluctuation in crime but some of it is clearly demographic. We are an aging society which generally leads to less crime.
“There are also environmental factors such as street lighting that help deter crime. Evidence shows that it reassures potential perpetrators of crimes such as robbery and auto theft that they will be caught,” he argues. are
